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水资源可持续性的参数敏感性分析
  • ISSN号:1000-0690
  • 期刊名称:《地理科学》
  • 分类:TV121.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]
  • 作者机构:[1]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275, [2]佛山市水务局,广东佛山528000, [3]华南师范大学地理科学学院,广东广州510631, [4]中山大学/华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目(41501021;51210013); 国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC21B0103); 水利部公益项目(201201094;201301002-02); 广东省水利科技创新项目(2011-11)
中文摘要:

通过界定敏感性参数的含义,认为参数的敏感性是系统对某一指参数的变化的敏感程度,以此为依据建立M-YAS模型分析参数的敏感性。以佛山市为例选取37项影响水资源可持续的参数,分析水资源可持续性的参数敏感性问题,结果表明:37项反映水资源可持续性的参数中,仅13项参数(生活用水定额、林牧渔畜用水量、工业用水定额、农田灌溉用水量、工业用水量、耕地灌溉定额、万元工业增加值用水量、火电冷却用水量、城乡生活用水量、工业节水、万元生产总值用水量、生活节水和农业节水)对于水资源可持续性的目标层而言是敏感性参数,且13项参数均来自用水结构与效率的准则层,说明区域水资源可持续性的目标层对用水结构与效率的准则层较为敏感。

英文摘要:

Water resources endowment, economic level, science and technology level and management are influence the sustainable development of water resources. There is different impact for the different indicators on regional water resources sustainability. The subtle differences of the indicators, which is a sensitive indicator of regional water resources sustainability, can lead to a greater difference in regional water resources sustainability. The sensitivity of Regional Water Resources Sustainability provides a more subtle decision support for macro management of water resources, which makes the efficient use of water resources and the purpose of the study. The study on regional water resources sustainable sensitivity, which appears large differences in the sustainability of regional water resources due to the difference in factors, provides more subtle decision support in macro management of water resources; makes more efficient use of water resources. Sensitivity studies can identify the sensitivity factors have important influence on the sustainability of water resources from many uncertainties, Foshan was taken as the research object of the paper, which analysised parameter sensitivity of the sustainability of water resources. This article established sensitivity analysis model(M-YAS), and selected 37 parameters, which affect the water resources sustainable.The results showed that: only 13 parameters from 37 the parameters is sensitive parameters for water resources sustainability target layer. And the domestic water quota is most sensitive for the target layer, followed by forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and livestock water.Another important conclusion was shown as: 13 parameters were from the structure and efficiency on the basis of the water layer. It showed that the goal of the sustainability of water resources and efficiency on the basis of the structure of water layers is more sensitive. The results displayed that the sustainability of water resources in Foshan city is affected by 13 indicators r

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期刊信息
  • 《地理科学》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中科院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所
  • 主编:陆大道
  • 地址:长春市高新北区盛北大街4888号
  • 邮编:130012
  • 邮箱:geoscien@iga.ac.cn
  • 电话:0431-85542212 85542217
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0690
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:22-1124/P
  • 邮发代号:8-31
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国自然科学核心期刊,中国地理学会优秀地理期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国剑桥科学文摘,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:39183