本文以政府经济政策不确定性为出发点,研究这种特殊的不确定性如何影响企业投资。有别于国内已有研究,本文使用斯坦福大学和芝加哥大学联合发布的中国经济政策不确定指数衡量我国经济政策的不确定性,发现经济政策不确定性的上升会对企业投资产生抑制作用,这种抑制作用在2008年金融危机之后表现得更加明显。进一步的研究显示,企业的投资不可逆程度、学习能力、所有权性质、机构持股比例以及股权集中度能够刺激经济政策不确定性对企业投资的抑制程度。研究结论表明,政府在希望通过改变现行经济政策影响企业投资时,也要关注经济政策频繁变动引发的政策不确定性可能对企业投资产生的负面影响。
This paper takes economic policy uncertainty as the start point to analyze whether this type of uncertainty could restrain corporate investment. Different from existing domestic research, the paper uses the China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index jointly released by Stanford University and Chicago University to measure economic policy uncertainty in China so as to find that economic policy uncertainty deters corporate investment which is more significant after the global financial crisis in 2008. Further evidence indicates that investment ir- reversibility, learning ability, ownership nature, institutional ownership and ownership concentration could influence the restraining effect of economic policy on corporate investment. The conclusion demonstrates that government should pay attention to the negative impact on corporate investment when they are considering stimulating corporate investment by economic policy adjustment.