中文摘要：

近年来频发的极端自然灾害充分反映了将停电防御框架向自然灾害预警延伸的必要性。归纳各类自然灾害对电力系统运行可靠性的影响;分析其引发电力系统设备故障的途径;建立各有关环节的数学模型;提炼灾害预警所需要的环境信息。将停电防御系统的信息采集范围拓广到宏观与微观的气象信息与地质信息;根据外部背景信息、实时的运行工况与环境信息,在线估算各类自然灾害对电力设备故障率影响的时空分布;用在线修正的时空概率模型代替离线固定的年均概率模型;在线调整稳定性和充裕性分析中的预想故障表,使风险越大的潜在故障得到越高的关注度;根据灾变演化机理,动态评估电力系统可靠性的风险,实现早期预警;进而使决策支持功能具有对自然灾害的自适应能力。

英文摘要：

In recent years, extreme natural disasters occur frequently, thus it is necessary to extend the defense scheme for defending the natural disasters. This paper concludes the impacts of natural disasters on power system operating reliability, analyses the failure mechanism of power system equipment, builds the mathematical models of correlation taches, and extracts the extended environmental information for blackout defense system. The scope of information acquisition of blackout defense system is expanded to macroscale and microscale meteorological information as well as geological information. The spatial- temporal distribution of electrical equipment failure probability is estimated on line based on the external background information, real-time operating conditions and environmental information. The spatial-temporal probability model modified on line takes the place of the yearly average probability model which is offline and fixed. The anticipated fault table of stability and adequacy analysis is adjusted on line so that the potential failures with high risks can attract more attention. Based on the catastrophe evolution mechanism, the risk of power system reliability is dynamically assessed, and the early-warning of a power system is realized, hence the decision support function can adapt the natural disasters.