中文摘要：

创新是人类财富之源，是经济发展的巨大动力。本文从复杂系统理论角度说明了技术创新系统的自组织特性；分析了创新过程的不稳定性、分岔、突变和随机“涨落”等演化特征和作用机理；随后结合进化经济学理论，构建了技术创新系统自组织竞争与协同演化过程的定量模型，并对模型的稳定性和演化趋势进行分析，应用统计和数学工具软件对模型的参数变化进行函数模拟，对模拟结果进行了讨论；随后以我国通信产业发展为例进行了相关案例分析。此研究旨在通过自然科学与社会科学的有效结合，对技术创新系统的演化机理及过程提供一种新的研究思路。

英文摘要：

Innovation is the source of the human wealth and the great driving force for economic development. From the perspective of system theory this paper illuminates the selforganization characteristics of technological innovation system and analyzes the selforganization mechanisms of the innovation process and characteristics of instability, the multiplicity （branch）, the sudden change and stochastic ＂the fluctuation＂ and constructs the self-organization competition and coordination models of technological innovation, and then makes an analysis of the stability and the evolution tendency and the function simulation of different models parameters. These models have realized the integration of the natural sciences and the social sciences, and developed a new method for studying the process of the technological innovation and diffusion.