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中文摘要：
分析师盈余预测普遍存在误差,但是该误差只有在企业盈余报告公布之后才能被观察到。为了探索对中国证券分析师盈余预测误差进行事前估计并加以剔除的可行性,本文借鉴Larocque（2013）[16]的方法对中国分析师盈余预测误差进行了事前估计,并对估计效果进行了检验。研究结果表明：我国分析师的预测误差是可以事前估计的,它与过去的预测误差正相关,与过去已实现的回报率、企业规模以及将来特定时期的回报率负相关;加以改进的Larocque（2013）[16]方法适合于对中国分析师盈余预测误差进行事前估计,预测误差调整以后的分析师预测值更加接近企业实际盈余,其误差也更小,并且能更好地代表市场期望。
英文摘要：
Analysts forecasts always contain errors, but these errors only can be observed after the release of financial report. In order to explore the feasibility of ex ante estimating the forecast errors of China＇s analysts, we refer to Larocque（2013）[16]＇s method and ex ante estimate them, and we also test the estimation result. The final results show that China＇s analyst forecast error can be estimated in advance. It＇s positively correlated with past error, and negatively correlated with past returns and firm size and future returns. The simply modified Larocque（2013）[16]＇s method performs well in ex ante estimating China＇s analyst forecast error. The adjusted analyst earning forecast is more close to firm＇s real earnings. And the adjusted forecast error becomes smaller. The most important thing is that the adjusted analyst forecast is better to be the market exoected earnings.
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