中文摘要：

准确的能源消耗预测可以为企业制定能源消耗工单、发现并控制能源消耗异常提供方法和数据支持。在分析烟草企业生产流程及能源消耗特点的基础上，收集目标企业近两年的生产数据和环境数据，采用三级计量方法采集工艺环节各设备的能耗统计，按照国际通用规则，将各类能耗转化为标准煤指标，利用统计分析软件，构建了基于烟草生产的能源消耗预测回归模型，采用逐日验证的方法以实际生产数据对模型的正确性和适用性进行了验证，并基于该模型为企业生产能耗提供标杆参考值。验证结果表明，构建的预测模型仿真结果误差较小，可以为烟草企业能源精细化管理提供方法支撑。

英文摘要：

This paper is intended to present a theoretical forecastprediction model for energy consumption of tobacco production through an analysis of the modeling approach to tobacco production and manufacturing enterprises. For the said purpose, we have identified and determined the energy consumption types and energy consumption distribution sections s＇o as to sum up their en- ergy consumption characteristic features. In addition, the paper has also made an analysis of the close relation between the environment temperature and the environment humidity in tobacco in- dustrial production. Practically speaking, it would be possible to formulate a probable list for the energy consumption through stud- ying the energy consumption method and data-supporting calculation of the enterprise and control the abnormal or unpredictable factors in this way. For, as a branch of most important industries of the national economy, tobacco industry managers have to pro- pose a precise strategy and tactics for their energy consumption management based on the clean and clear safety energy consump- tion needs so as＇ to achieve their strategic goals of energy consumption and cost reduction. It is just for the above said purpose that this paper attempts to build up the following energy consumption prediction model for the above mentioned enterprisers based on the following conclusive ideas ： First of all, a forecast and prediction model has been proposed based on the energy consumption statistics of the various kinds of equipment and facilities at each production procedure or step by using a three class measurement model based on the actual energy consumption and production practice in the recent two years. Secondly, we have transferred and transformed all the energy consumption items into the stand- ard coal indices, and, consequently, verified the regression mod- el of the aforementioned energy consumption sum-total by using a statistical analysis software in accordance with the international statistical regularities. And, next, we have