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基于风险分析的刘家峡水库最优防凌库容配置方案研究

ISSN号：1003-1243
期刊名称：水力发电学报
时间：2013.12.20
页码：76-82
分类：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]
作者机构：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,西安710048, [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,合肥230009
相关基金：国家自然科学基金重大项目（51190093）;国家自然基金（51179148,51179149）;国家重大基础研究计划（2011CB403306）;国家公益性行业科研专项（201001012,201101043,201101049）;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划（NCET-10-0933）
相关项目：复杂梯级水库群洪水调度的补偿机理及防洪预警模式研究

关键词：水库调度, 防凌库容, 风险评价, 投影寻踪聚类, 凌灾风险, reservoir operation, ice control capacity, risk evaluation, projection pursuit clustering, ice disaster risk

中文摘要：

黄河上游防凌期梯级水库优化调度的一个主要特点，就是在满足沿黄省区供水、用电要求的同时，还必须考虑下游宁蒙河段的防凌安全要求。刘家峡预留一定防凌库容承接防凌期上游发电来水，是兼顾梯级发电与防凌需求的一个行之有效的工程技术手段，也一直是黄河上游梯级水电站联合优化调度研究的一个难点。论文在总结回顾近年来刘家峡水库预留防凌库容及其不足的基础上，建立了定量计算刘家峡水库不同防凌库容预留方案对应下游河段凌灾风险的基于投影寻踪聚类的宁蒙河段凌灾风险综合评价模型。由此，考虑黄河上游防凌、发电及综合用水要求，分析计算了刘家峡水库不同防凌库容预留方案对应的下游河段凌灾风险变化情况，最终制定了刘家峡水库最优防凌库容配置原则及方案。上述研究成果丰富和发展了黄河上游梯级水电站联合优化调度的理论及实践研究体系，为防凌期梯级水电站的联合优化运行提供了科学合理的决策指导依据。

英文摘要：

In the ice period, ice control safety of the upper Yellow is a major requirement that the optimized regulation of cascade reservoirs must satisfy while considering the power and water demands by the provinces along the river. Reserving a certain storage capacity of the Liujiaxia reservoir in this period to accommodate the incoming water is a feasible and effective engineering measure to meet the generation and ice control requirements, but it is a difficult issue in the study of optimized regulation of the upper Yellow. This paper develops a comprehensive model of ice disaster risk evaluation for the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach, based on summarizing the storage reservation measure and its deficiency found recent years. This model uses projection pursuit clustering to calculate quantitatively the risk degree of different reservation schemes. It was applied to calculation and analysis of the ice disaster risk in the conditions of ice control, generation and water supply required by the upper Yellow and the condition of storage reservation, and optimal schemes of water allocation and its principles were obtained. The results enrich and develop the system of theory and application study in optimized regulation of cascade reservoirs and they would supply a quantitative decision basis for the combined optimal operation of cascade reservoirs in the ice period of the upper Yellow River.

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