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中文摘要：
在构建考虑预期的商品住宅需求调控模型基础上，采用面板模型和数值模拟方法对1999—2010年中国35个大中城市商品住宅需求调控政策的实施效应进行定量评价和模拟分析。结果表明：样本期内市场参与者的房价预期对商品住宅需求产生了显著的正向影响；存款准备金率、土地、利率工具对商品住宅需求分别产生了抑制、刺激、抑制作用，且作用力度依次递减；经适房政策对商品住宅需求的影响不显著；模拟分析将不同政策工具的干预效应分离、显化。
英文摘要：
On the basis of building up the commercial housing demand regulation model considering expectations, this papermakes quantitative and simulation analysis of the macro-policies＇ performance on 35 cities＇ commercial housing demandduring 1999 to 2010 in China. The results show that in the sample period, market participants＇ expectations have a signifi-cant positive effect on commercial housing demand; deposit reserve ratio policy, land policy, interest rate policy have inhib-ited effect, stimulated effect, inhibited effect on commercial housing demand respectively, and impacts of them are declineone by one; the affordable housing policy＇ impact on commercial housing demand is not significant; simulation analysismakes the intervention effects of different policies be separated and visual.
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