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中文摘要：
如何抑制住房需求的非理性增长已成为稳定房价,促进市场健康发展的关键问题。建立了含有市场参与者预期和城市差异的住房需求调控模型,并对1999-2010年间住房调控政策在各类城市的实施效果进行了比较和模拟分析。研究表明：市场参与者预期在样本期内对4类城市的住房需求都具有显著的正向影响,且房价水平越高的城市其住房需求越容易受房价预期的影响;存款准备金率只对B-D类城市住房需求产生了不同程度的抑制作用;土地工具对4类城市住房需求都产生了刺激作用,但作用力度各不相同;利率、经适房工具只对A类城市产生了显著影响,且作用方向相反;模拟分析表明同一政策工具在4类城市实施后,住房需求的响应是不同的。研究结论在一定程度上解释了国内住房调控的低效,对于提高住房需求调控的针对性、差异化和有效性,促进市场主体合理决策等都具有一定的现实意义。
英文摘要：
How to control unreasonable housing demand has become the key problem of stabilizing the prices and promoting the market to develop healthily.The paper builds up the housing demand regulation model considering expectations and classes of cities,makes cluster analysis of 35 cities＇ panel data in China,and makes comparative and simulation analysis of the macropolicies＇ performance on four kinds of cities＇ housing demand during 1999 to 2010.The results show that：In the sample period,market participants＇ expectations have significant positive effects on four kinds of cities,and it is more vulnerable to the impact of price expectations in cities which have higher prices;the deposit reserve ratio policy has different degree of inhibited effects on cities of class B to D;the land policy has stimulated effects on four kinds of cities,but influence degree is diverse from each other;the interest rate policy and affordable housing policy only have significant effects on cites of class A,and they act in the opposite direction;the simulation analysis shows that the same policy or policy combinations have different effects on four kinds of cities.The above conclusions explain the poor efficiency of domestic housing regulation to some extent,and have practical significance for improving the direction,differentiation and effectiveness of the housing demand regulation and guiding the market players to make rational decisions.
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