本研究采用几何相对资源承载力模型,对吉林中部粮食主产区1989—2008年相对资源承载力进行了分析,明确了吉林中部粮食主产区相对资源承载力变化态势,为引导农村剩余劳动力合理流动、发展农业经济提供支持。研究结果显示:1989—2000年粮食主产区处于人口和经济承载力双重富余,经济发展不足;2001—2008年人口承载力富余,经济发展较好;水土资源对于相对承载力贡献较大,经济资源对相对承载力贡献逐渐上升;相对于山东、河南、两湖地区等我国主要粮食产区,吉林中部粮食主产区处于人口、经济富余,相比黑龙江,粮食主产区人口承载力相对富余;基于时间序列分析,吉林省粮食主产区相对承载力呈现出波动变化。
The article compared with the relative carrying capacity of resources in major grain producing areas of Jilin, it was helpful for guiding labour force and agricultural economy. The paper adopted the geometry model of relative resource carrying capacity, the analysis of relative resource carrying capacity in major grain producing areas of Jilin could be calculated from 1989 to 2008. The results showed that the population and economic carrying capacity in major grain producing areas were double abundance from 1989 to 2000, the development of economy was not enough; the population carrying capacity was margin but the economic carrying capacity was overload from 2001 to 2008. The contribution to the synthetic carrying capacity of/and and water were greater, the economic carrying capacity increased. Compared with the Shandong, Henan which were major grain producing areas of China, both population and economic carrying capacity were margin, the population carrying capacity was abundance contrast for Heilongjiang. The relative carrying capacity showed the fluctuate variety with the change of time-series.