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城市系统演化的复杂性研究

期刊名称：人文地理，2008，23（6）：37-40，36.
时间：0
分类：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探;天文地球—地质学]
作者机构：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春130012, [2]中国科学院研究生院．北京100049
相关基金：国家自然科学基金重点项目（40635030）; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目（KZCX2-YW-342;KZCX2-YW-321-04）; 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（2004CB418507）
相关项目：东北地区矿业城市人地系统脆弱性与可持续性研究

关键词：经济系统, 脆弱性评价, 集对分析, 障碍度, 大庆市, economic system, vulnerability assessment, set pair analysis, obstacle degree, Daqing city

中文摘要：

集对分析是研究客观事物之间确定性与不确定性联系的一种有效的系统理论与方法。将多个评价指标合成一个与最优评价集的相对贴近度,用来评价经济系统的脆弱性程度。基于经济系统脆弱性的内涵,从经济系统对区域可采石油资源逐渐枯竭的敏感性及应对能力两个方面建立了脆弱性评价指标体系,利用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,运用集对分析法构建经济系统脆弱性评估模型。以典型石油城市大庆为例,分析1991年以来大庆经济系统脆弱性的演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明：①大庆经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈现波动上升趋势,由1991年的0.504增至2007年的0.573;区域应对不利扰动的能力不断增强,由1991年的0.268增至2007年的0.771;经济系统脆弱性整体上呈现不断下降趋势,由初期的0.619降至2007年的0.402。②应对能力的强弱对大庆经济系统脆弱性的影响具有主导作用。③原油产量增长率、人均GDP和工业全员劳动生产率等是影响经济系统脆弱性程度的关键因子。④区域应对能力的＂障碍度＂分析表明,固定资产投资密度一直是第一障碍因素,而产业结构的限制集中出现在2000年以前。研究认为,大庆经济系统脆弱性呈下降趋势,但仍处于中等脆弱状态,需要重点关注主要敏感因子与障碍因子的发展变化。

英文摘要：

Set pair analysis （SPA） is to study the certain and uncertain relationship among different things and is introduced to assess the economic system vulnerability （ESV） of petroleum city,through which the approximate degree of ESV to the optimal set is calculated to describe the vulnerable level of the economic system by combining multiple indices.Vulnerability analysis framework in sustainability science has many properties of multi-scale,multi-element,multi-flow and multi-cycle,which presents a new research paradigm for petroleum cities.Based on a detailed discussion about the conception of ESV,the essay establishes an economic system vulnerability assessment model of petroleum cities from the aspects of sensitivity to and response capacity for the gradual depletion of the regional minable petroleum resources by using the SPA.Then it uses entropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights for assessment of the ESV of petroleum city.Taking Daqing city as an example,this paper analyses the economic system vulnerability during the period of 1991-2007.The results indicate that the ESV of Daqing city shows a declining trend since 1991,from 0.619 in 1991 to 0.402 in 2007.The influence of response capacity on Daqing＇s economic system vulnerability is more evident than that of sensitivity.Growth rate of crude oil production,GDP per capita and overall labor productivity are the leading factors for the economic system vulnerability of Daqing city.The results of obstacle degree of regional response capacity indicate that the density of fixed asset investment was the most important obstacle factor during 1991-2005,and that the restriction of the industrial structure mainly appeared before 2000.The conclusions are that the economic system vulnerability of Daqing city is declining,but still at the vulnerable level.So,Daqing city should put emphases on the development of the sensitive and obstacle factors.

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