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中文摘要：
鉴于目前环境质量预测在理论方法和实践上的缺乏，把马尔科夫链目l入环境质量的预测中，将各种污染物的浓度变化过程视作马尔科夫过程，通过预测各种污染物的污染负荷系数来推知其浓度值。实例中通过多元回归分析计算出马尔科夫转移矩阵，以2005年辽宁省5种大气污染物的污染负荷系数作为初始向量，预测了今后5年的变化。然后利用GM（1，1）模型预测出降尘的具体浓度值，由此计算出了2006～2010年辽宁省5种污染物的浓度值。
英文摘要：
For the researches on environmental quality prediction have been sparse, only a few methods and practices are therefore available. As changes in the concentration of various pollutants could be regarded as a Markov process, the Markov-chain was herein introduced for predicting the environmental quality, and the concentrations could be inferred through forecasting the pollution load coefficients of various pollutants. In practice, a Markov transferring matrix was evaluated by regression analysis, and the pollution load coefficients of five air pollutants in Liaoning province in the year 2005 were taken as initial vectors to predict their changes in the next five years. The GM （1,1） model was then used to predict the contents of dust-fall in the corresponding years, and the concentrations of five pollutants were therefore calculated accordingly.
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同项目期刊论文
Economic Transformation Capacities and Developmental Countermeasures of Coal-resource-based Counties
Vulnerability of Large City and Its Implication in Urban Planning: A Perspective of Intra-urban Stru
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