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中文摘要：
广州港水域是我国比较繁忙的沿海船舶交通水域之一.为了更好地了解船舶航行的风险特征和风险发展趋势,采用改进型风险评估法（PRA）对港口水域环境进行风险评估,提出基于贝叶斯理论的风险预测和通航流量计算方法,分析船舶航行的风险特征和风险发展趋势.经对广州港水域状况的综合安全评估和通航水域的饱和度分析,可得出不同水域在不同船舶动态和风险种类下的风险程度,并可预测广州港水域船舶航行风险发展趋势.其结论可为安全管理部门制定风险控制方案提供决策支持.
英文摘要：
Guangzhou harbor is one of the busiest coastal waters of marine traffic in China.In order to understand navigational risk characteristics and risk development trend better,a risk assessment method combining Bayesian inference with FSA method is developed to assess the characteristics and development trends of ship navigational risk.By using the proposed risk assessment method,risk levels at different waters in Guangzhou harbor are obtained for different ship dynamic conditions.The risk kinds and navigational risk development trends in Guangzhou harbor are predicted.The Assessment and prediction conclusions can be a decision making support to Safety Management Department in designing risk control scheme and measures.
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