中文摘要：

针对典型矿冶零部件在恶劣工况背景下其可靠性寿命难以准确预测的难题,提出了一种改进的威布尔分布模型可靠性寿命预测新方法。首先结合矿冶设备典型零部件的特征与传统的平均秩法在计算经验分布函数中存在不足,建立了二参数威布尔分布矿冶零部件预测模型,然后采用改进的平均秩法与最小二乘法对模型的形状参数与尺寸参数进行估计,并利用改进的新方法对典型零部件可靠性寿命进行了预测。以某具体型号的鄂式破碎机曲轴的失效数据和截尾数据为例,验证了提出的新方法比传统方法预测精度更有效。

英文摘要：

According to the reliability life of typical mining and metallurgy parts that is difficult to predict accurately in unfavorable working condition,a new method is established for predicting the reliability life of typical mining and metallurgy parts by using an improved Weibull distribution. Firstly,combining the feature of mining and metallurgy equipment typical components with the traditional mean rank method shortcomings in calculating empirical distribution function,prediction model is built for typical mining and metallurgy parts based on two parameters Weibull distribution. And then improved mean rank order method and least squares estimation are used to estimate the shape parameter and size parameter of the model. To use new improved method predicts reliability life of typical parts.Taking the crankshaft failure and censored data of a specific type jaw crushing machine as an example,the result achieves fine result and proves that forecasting precision of present method is more effective than the conventional.