中文摘要：

斑头雁是青海湖候鸟中的优势种之一,其未来种群数量的变化对青海湖的保护决策具有重要作用。利用STELLA图形化建模软件,从动力学出发,构建了青海湖地区斑头雁种群数量变化的动态模型。在该模型中,根据前人和青海湖自然保护区对斑头雁的观测研究结果,设置了班头雁的交配、产卵、孵卵、育幼、迁入、迁出、死亡等过程的模型参数。根据斑头雁在青海湖的活动时间,设置以年为模拟单位,选取1/7为模拟步长,对未来25年的青海湖斑头雁种群变化趋势进行了模拟,并进行了灾害模拟。模拟结果表明,未来青海湖斑头雁的最大种群数量,将在20000余只的饱和数量之内变化。2006—2008年斑头雁观测数据验证表明,该模型模拟结果可信,其方法对青海湖的其他鸟类研究也具有一定的参考价值。

英文摘要：

Bar-headed geese （Anser indicus） is animportant migratory goose species group in the Qinghai lake region. Population dynamics of the group provides the foundation data of decision-making in Bar-headed geese protection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was constructed in Qinghai lake region regarding the dynamics with STELLA graphical modeling software. Parameters included in the model described mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigration, emigration and mortality based on long term observation data. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of the periodic time bar-headed geese stay in Qinghai lake. The next 25 years simulated population change results showed that the trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. Meanwhile, the population was simulated assuming calamity strikes in 2010. The model and simulated results of the bar-headed goose population are reliable according to calibrated results using observed data from 2006 to 2008, and the method of modeling bar-headed goose population provides some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region. Finally, suggestions of protection for the bar-headed goose have been proposed based on above results.