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中文摘要：
基于天山乌鲁木齐河源区1959-2009年的径流与气象记录,采用线性回归、M-K突变检验法和水量平衡模型分析了河源区气候、冰川及融水量的变化特征。研究发现：河源区冰川径流量与冰川物质平衡成负相关关系,过去51a间河源1号冰川融水径流共增加157.48×104m3,冰川融水径流量增加主要是由冰川退缩和降水量增加造成的。自20世纪90年代以后,冰川融水径流量增加显著,但整个河源区径流量却在减少,与气温升高导致蒸散能力增强、地下冰结构变化及冰川融水补给能力下降等有关。
英文摘要：
According to the hydrological and meteorological records at the headwaters of the Urumqi River in Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2009,the climatic and glacial influences on patterns of streamflow were analyzed by linear regression,M-K trend test and water balance model.This study revealed that the runoff of glacier negatively correlated with the glacier mass-balance,and the glacier melt runoff increased by 157.48×104m3 over the recent 51 years,and the increasing runoff was mainly resulted from glacier melt and precipitation enhancement.After 1990s,the glacier runoff increased quickly,but the runoff of the whole headwaters region was decreasing,which was influenced by ground ice formation,the evapotranspiration,and the decreased glacier melt water supply caused by climatic changes.
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