以横断山区20个气象站1960-2009年逐日气象数据为基础,应用1998年FAO修正的Penman-Monteith模型分析了横断山区潜在蒸发量的变化,在ArcGIS环境下通过样条插值法分析了潜在蒸发量变化的时空分异,并对影响潜在蒸发量变化的气象因素进行了讨论,结果表明:年潜在蒸发量自20世纪60年代中期以来呈波动减小趋势,20世纪80年代中期之后减小趋势更加明显,2000-2009年呈增加趋势。潜在蒸发量的年际变化倾向率为-0.17mma-1,从空间分布来看,北部、中部、南部都呈减少趋势,倾向率由北向南逐渐减小。从季节来看,秋季和冬季潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势,春季和夏季呈减小趋势,春季减小趋势大于夏季,秋季增加趋势大于冬季。气温上升、风速和日照时数的降低是横断山区潜在蒸发量减少的主导因素,风速和日照时数的下降导致春季和夏季潜在蒸发量减小,气温上升导致秋季和冬季潜在蒸发量增加。
In this paper,annual and seasonal changes of potential evaporation were analyzed to conduct studies on hydrological model and ecological environment based on climate data at 20 meteorological stations in the Hengduan Mountains region during 1960-2009,in combination of the Penman-Monteith model.The changing trend in potential evaporation over the Hengduan Mountains is analyzed in this study.With the method of Spline under ArcGIS,the spatial distribution of potential evaporation is presented to research the regional difference.And the correlation analysis is used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the potential evaporation.The results indicate that the annual potential evaporation showed a decreasing tendency since the 1960s,especially from the 1980s to the 1990s,while it showed an increasing tendency since 2000.Regional potential evaporation showed a rate of-0.17 mm a-1.The potential evaporation in north,middle and south of Hengduan Mountains exhibited decreasing trends over the studied period,and its regional trend was on the decline from the southwest to the northeast.