期望务工距离反映了农民务工地决策中的距离选择偏好,对其研究有助于在微观层面了解农民工流动的倾向和规律。通过对河南省南阳市三个不同类型样本村的实证研究,发现务工者的期望务工距离整体分散、局部集中,具有"U"型分布规律,同时具有一定惯性,但整体而言仍以本地为主。在期望务工距离选择模型中,年龄、上学年限、家庭人口、经济发展水平、地形等因子达到了显著水平。年龄较大者、学历较低者、家庭人口较多者期望在本地务工的概率较大,经济较发达村和地形起伏度较大村的务工者,期望在本地务工的概率较大,反之亦然。
Expectant employment distance reflects the preference to decision-making of employment place for farmer.Studying on the issue is helpful to understand the flow trend and law of farmer employee at microcosmic level.Through the case study of three example villages in Henan province,we can draw the following conclusion.The expectant employment distance is scattered wholly and clustered partly.The concentrated distance is chiefly in 50km and 1 000—2 000km.The area within 50km is local and the area from 1 000 to 2 000km is the big city which has the developed industry.The pattern of expectant employment distance is much like the actual ones.The choice for expectant employment place has the characteristic of inertia.Because of the limitation for information and avoidance for migration risk,the farmers don’t choose the new place and new employer generally.Farmers preferred working in local place but 20 percent of the employees cannot help but work in other places in the country.So it is very important to develop the county economy and agricultural area.The chief reasons why farmers work in local places are to maintain the love of family member and utilize the original social resources,whereas in other places are to increase the income and live in big city for multiple life style.In the choice model of working distance,such factors as age,school age,family size,level of economic development,topography has reached significant level.Those who are older,or who are less educated or who have larger family size are more probable to choose local places for employment and vice versa.The farmer employee at the more economic developed villages or at more cragged terrain villages have larger probability to choose local for working,and vice versa.Reducing the family management cost and avoiding the risk of migration play the key role in choosing the employment place and the human capital maintains fundamental function.So,it is of great importance to promote the employee’s human capital,develop the social safeguard undertakings