中文摘要：

根据实物期权的思想和方法，建立了排污权交易条件下厂商污染治理投资分析模型，并阐述了厂商对可升级换代污染治理技术的投资策略选择问题．结果表明，厂商选择立即升级旧污染治理技术到新污染治理技术的条件为升级旧污染治理技术所获得的收益大于（或等于）零；而厂商直接投资新一代污染治理技术的条件为直接投资新一代污染治理技术收益大于（或等于）购买旧污染治理技术然后立即升级到新污染治理技术的收益，否则，厂商将以折扣价购买旧污染治理技术．

英文摘要：

Based on real option theory, an investment analysis model under the condition of emission permits trading was given, and the investment strategy choice where the technology can be updated was also discussed. The research shows that the condition of updating old pollution treatment technology to new one is. the profit after updating is more than （or equal to） zero; while the condition of investing in new pollution treatment technology is. the profit after investment is more than （or equal to） the profit of updating the old pollution treatment technology to new one, otherwise, firm will buy old pollution treatment technology.