台风灾害给中国沿海地区造成了严重损失,进行台风风险评估将为台风灾害有效规避提供科学依据,探讨台风强度等级和灾害损失之间的关系是台风风险定量评估的基础。利用1954—2008年间登陆中国东南沿海的174场成灾台风路径数据和对应的灾情记录数据,对台风强度等级和承灾体(农作物、人口、房屋和社会经济)的8项指标的损失数量关系进行分析,并对台风强度等级与各项损失率指标之间的关系进行拟合,得出各项灾损指标的损失率曲线。基于台风强度等级划分标准和损失率曲线,建立了适合于我国的四个强度等级的台风灾害损失标准划分方案:微度、轻度、中度和重度,对应的损失率用承灾体的社会经济指标来表征。研究表明:当台风强度等级达到第4等级时,灾害造成的损失率均有较大幅度的增加。本文构建的台风灾害损失标准可为进一步定量评估承灾体脆弱性及损失风险提供依据和参考。
Typhoon disasters cause great losses in coastal regions of China, and typhoon disaster risk assessment can provide scientific basis for disaster loss prevention. It is a basic work to assess its risk quantitatively in discussion on the relationship between typhoon intensity grade and disaster loss. In this paper, 174 typhoon paths data and disaster situation data from 1954 to 2008, and intensity grade information for each typhoon event from track dataset are used to analyze the relationship between typhoon "intensity grade and 8 loss indices. The typhoon intensity grade is characterized by average wind speed. The loss indices include crop afflicted area, crop failure area, afflicted population, mortality, injuried, settlement population, collapsed buildings, and direct economic loss, which belong to four kinds of hazard resilient society (crops, population, house and economy). Based on typhoon wind theory, the affected range of each typhoon is extracted by doing buffer in spatial analysis module on ArcGIS9.3. According to the ranges, the 8 indices for loss rates could be calculated. The relationship between typhoon intensity grade and disaster loss rates are fitted by statistical method, and the loss rate curves are obtained subsequently. The loss rate curves are showed in exponential forms. Based on the typhoon intensity grade division standard and loss rate curves, the scheme of typhoon disaster loss criteria is established, which could be divided into four grades: slight, light, medium and severe. In the criteria, each grade could be characterized by 8 loss indices. The results indicate that loss rates are exponentially increasing with typhoon intensity grade, namely, the higher the intensity grade, the larger the amount of losses. When the intensity grade is 4, the loss rates are increasing sharply. Crops are the most affected in four kinds of hazard resilient society when typhoons landing, and in the severe case, 63.25% of crops area suffers from typhoon disaster. However, mortality rate, injury rate