中文摘要：

提高供电可靠性,减少停电事件是电力企业的工作重点,也是电力用户的迫切希望。掌握电网运行停电事件的发生规律,可以为电力企业制定提高供电可靠性的有效措施提供依据。基于此,结合概率论理论,提出了构建电网运行停电概率函数的新方法。根据某地区2008—2010年的停电事件统计数据,运用Matlab软件建立了该地区电网运行停电概率函数,并对停电事件进行了分析,进而对该城市电网2010—2012年停电概率进行了预测。实例验证表明：该建模方法有效可行,可用于计算电网运行停电概率。本研究为评估电力用户停电损失做了前期准备。

英文摘要：

Improving the power supply reliability and reducing the power failure incidents are quite important for electric power enterprises,and also eager expectation of electricity consumers.Grasping the track of power failure incidents can provide some theoretical foundations for the electric power enterprises to formulate the measures of improving power supply reliability.Therefore,how to construct the power failure probability function,based on probability theory,is introduced in this paper.According to the statistical data of the power failure incidents in a certain region between 2008 and 2010,the region power failure probability function is constructed by Matlab programming,and the incidents are also analyzed.Then,the power failure probability between 2010 and2012 is forecasted.The case study shows that this method of constructing power failure probability function is effective and feasible,which can be used for calculating power failure probability.This study makes an important preparation for assessing the power failure loss of electricity consumers.