城市电网规划的风险具有复杂性和不确定性,合理评估电网规划的风险是保证电网实现其社会效益和经济效益的前提.本文构建了城市电网规划风险综合评价指标体系,涵盖了包括政策、市场、技术等五个方面的风险.并提出了基于AHP-灰色三角白化权函数的综合评价模型,用于评价城市电网规划的风险程度.文章以某市电网规划项目为例,对其规划风险进行了实证分析.算例表明该方法具有可行性,对城市电网规划风险评估有—定的参考价值.
The risk of urban power grid planning is complex and uncertain, and a reasonable assessment of the risk of grid planning is the premise of grid to achieve its social and economic benefit. The paper builds a comprehensive evaluation index system for the urban power grid planning risk, which covers five aspects including policy, markets, technology risk and so on, and establishes a comprchensive evaluation model based on AHP-gray triangle whiten function to evaluate the risk degree of the urban power grid planning. Finally, taking a city grid planning projects as an example, the empirical analysis shows that the method is feasible.