中文摘要：

实现配电网设备故障停电风险的实时评估对供电可靠性的提高、停电损失的降低有积极意义.提出包含设备故障率和设备故障停电影响程度的配电网设备故障停电风险评估模型,设备故障率综合考虑了实时系统因素及环境因素,设备故障停电影响程度考虑了损失负荷、损失电量、停电用户小时数、停电用户级别加权户数4个指标.以某配电网为例实现对配电网设备故障停电风险的实时评估,结果达到了实时评估的要求,证明了所提方法的准确性.

英文摘要：

The real-time risk assessment on the equipment failure outage of distribution network may improve the power supply reliability and reduce the outage loss. A risk assessment model is proposed for it,which contains the equipment failure rate and the equipment failure outage impact degree. The failure rate considers the real-time system factors and the environmental factors while the impact degree considers four indexes：load loss,electricity loss,power outage user-hours and weighted power outage users. The real- time risk assessment on equipment failure outage is implemented for a distribution network,verifying the correctness and real-time performance of the proposed method.