中文摘要：

饱和负荷的研究对城市电网远景规划以及经济社会与电网协调发展具有重要意义.首先综合考虑经济发展、产业结构、城市发展水平和居民生活水平等经济社会发展因素对饱和负荷的影响,筛选出适用于城市饱和负荷预测的经济社会发展指标;其次,介绍了用于经济社会发展指标预测的Logistic模型,并对提出的滚动多维度城市饱和负荷预测模型原理进行了阐述;最后,以北京市为例,在对其经济社会指标进行预测的基础上,运用所提出的模型对北京市饱和负荷进行了分析,实证结果表明本文提出的城市饱和负荷预测新方法是有效可行的.

英文摘要：

The study of saturated power load has important significance on long-term planning of urban power grid and coordinated development between economy society and power grid. The economic and social development indices for urban saturated power load forecasting are firstly selected with consideration of impacts of economic development, industry structure, urban development level and people＇ s living standards. The Logistic model of economic and social development indices forecasting is introduced. The proposed urban saturated power load forecasting model based on roiling multi-dimensions method is then analyzed. Finally, the economic and social development indices of Beijing are forecasted, and the saturated power load is analyzed by employing the proposed model. The testing result shows effectiveness and practical of the proposed method.