中文摘要：

对北京市电力与经济增长的关系进行研究,可为其电力产业政策的制定提供科学依据.基于北京市1978-2012年电力需求与经济增长指标的数据,利用灰色关联分析筛选出北京市电力需求增长的影响因素.在此基础上利用协整理论,构建出北京市电力与经济增长的长期均衡模型与短期误差修正模型.结果表明：地区生产总值增加1％,全社会用电量增加0.28％;三产占比增加1％,全社会用电量增加0.12％;电力消费强度增加1个单位,全社会用电量增加3.91％;城镇化率增加1％,全社会用电量增加3.15％,城镇化进程促进其电力需求增长的作用明显.

英文摘要：

The study on the relationship between electricity and economy in Beijing can provide a scientific basis for the development of electric power industry policy. Based on the co-integration, this paper analyzes the relationship between the electricity demand and economic growth factors from 1978 to 2012 in Beijing. The economic factors influencing the electricity demand are selected by grey- relational theory. And then, the co-integration model and error correction model of the relationship between electricity and economy are established. Results show that when GDP increased by 1%, the total electricity consumption increased 0.28%; the tertiary industry accounted for 1% increase in total electricity consumption increased by 0.12%; electricity consumption intensity increase an unit, total electricity consumption increased 3.91%; urbanization rate increased by 1%, the total electricity consumption increased 3.15%. Therefore, the urbanization rate is the main factor that promotes the increase of electricity demand growth.