中文摘要：

应急资源需求预测是应急资源优化配置的前提和基础。针对应急资源需求预测的特点，提出了基于风险分析方法和案例推理技术（Case—based Reasoning，CBR）的应急资源需求预测方法。这种方法可以对应急资源的需求数量、需求质量和需求种类进行预测。最后，以一个预测案例来说明应急资源需求预测方法在实际中的应用过程。研究表明，这种方法可以满足应急的需要，为今后应急资源的储备、配置等提供依据，也可以为拟建的应急资源配置决策系统提供方法和模型支持。

英文摘要：

With the development of economy and society, the human population size and property gathered in one place are increasing gradually. Tremendous losses of human life and property would hap- pen in the accidents and natural disasters （earthquakes, floods, storms, etc. ）, as well as the induced secondary disasters （fire, ex- plosion, leakage of toxic substances, etc. ） . When major natural dis- asters or emergency accidents happen, the best way to reduce casual- ties and property losses is through initializing the emergency plan and allocate the emergency resources as soon as possible. The demand forecasting is the premise and basis for emergency resources alloca- tions. The ultimate purpose of demand forecasting is to ensure the success of the rescue action and enable the victims to safely escape from the dangers. At present, there are only limited numbers of stud- ies regarding the emergency resource demand prediction can be found in the literature. In our study, the demand forecasting is carried out by applying case-based reasoning along with the method of risk analy- sis. The theoretical principle of case-based reasoning is similarity the- ory. This article has made use of the method to predict the emergency resource demands based on quantity, quality, and categories. The forecasted results showed that this new method is able to satisfy the requirement of emergency cases and it exhibits high potential for other practical applications. Accuracy of the proposed method can be im- proved by the accumulation of case database.