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中文摘要：
回归分析在工程中有广泛的应用,但是常常由于对问题本身研究的不够全面、深入,或是由于新的影响因素介入等,所选择的自变量不能充分解释因变量,结果导致误差项的均值不为零,此时,采用回归分析进行预测,往往带来较大误差.为此,提出一种递进回归-自回归预测方法,该方法能够充分发挥回归和递进自回归各自的优点,对误差项进行有效补偿.大量计算表明,与传统方法相比,所提方法能显著提高因变量的预测精度.
英文摘要：
Regression analysis has various applications in engineering. The dependent variable cannot be fully explained by chosen independent variables for the flowing two reassons; first, the prablem itself or its physical characteristics cannot be completely researched; second, new influencing factors may intervene. As the trend component of regression residual is not zero, the prediction error may considerably large if regression method is used. A progressive regression and autoregression prediction method is proposed, which can make effective compensation for the trend component of regression residual. Compared with traditional method, this method can significantly improve the prediction precision of the dependent variable.
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