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中文摘要：
俄罗斯是中国最大的原木进口来源国,俄罗斯政府宣布从2010年1月起将原木出口关税从当前的6.5%增加到80%。本文通过建立中国区域木材市场模型,模拟了俄罗斯原木出口关税提高将对我国各地区的木材市场产生的数量影响。由模型得到的结论是：东北地区将受到的影响最大,森林资源的采伐压力会因为进口关税的大幅度提高而增加;中部地区的采伐量将增加约2%左右;而西部和南部地区的采伐数量几乎不变。从全国范围来看,我国采伐总量将增加3.23%。从地区间的贸易影响来看,中部地区的木材进口会流向东北地区,来弥补东北进口木材数量减少带来的影响。据此,文章最后提出了相应的政策建议：进口渠道的多元化,保证国内的木材安全;相关政府部门应进一步为中国林业加工企业到俄罗斯投资提供便利和引导,从而进一步明晰产业分工格局;从俄罗斯进来的原木减少,应将大部分板材落地加工,促使地区木材产品结构调整和产业升级,逐渐改变单以加工锯材为主的产品结构。
英文摘要：
Russia is the largest exporter of log to China.The Russian government recently announced an increase in its export tariff on log from the present 6.5% of export product value to 80% in January 2010.The impact from increasing Russia export tariff to China is simulated by the China Timber Market Model established in this paper.The conclusions are： the Northeast region of China will be affected most and the harvest pressure will be enhanced by the large-scale tariff increase.The harvest in the middle region will increase about 2% while the south and west regions will be hardly impacted.In a whole,the total harvest of timber in China will increase 3.23%.From the impact of inter-region trade,the timber from the middle region will flow into the northeast to compensate the impact from decrease of timber.Some policy suggestions are given accordingly： diversify the import channel so as to guarantee the timber security;governments should provide convenience and guidance for China＇s forestry processing enterprises so as to clarify the industrid structure;due to the decrease of the exported amount of Russia log,most of plankings will be processed locally,which will promote the timber product structure adjustment and upgrading,then changing the leading role of lumber in product structure.
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