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中文摘要：
针对不利天气对农业生产的影响会使“公司＋农户”型订单农业面临高违约率窘境的问题，建立了由公司与农户组成的两级农产品供应链利润决策模型，比较分析了不利天气对集中式与分散式决策下最优决策的影响，进而设计了一种与不利天气指数相关的“天气（看涨）期权＋风险补偿＋加盟金”的订单契约机制．研究表明：公司可通过采取购买天气期权这一风险外化方式，利用金融市场转移不利天气风险，以保障不利天气影响下公司与农户的稳定收益；此外，实施所设计的订单契约机制可实现双方利润的Pareto改善，并增强了订单农业模式下农产品供应链系统的稳健性．最后，通过数值仿真验证了所设计订单契约机制的有效性．
英文摘要：
In view of the effects of adverse weather on agricultural production, which makes the ＂company ＋ farmer＂ contract farming face the dilemma of high default rates, this paper first builds a profit decision model for a two stage agricultural supply chain that consists of a company and a farmer, then compares and analyzes the effects of adverse weather on the optimal decisions under both centralized and decentralized settings, respectively. On this basis, a contract mechanism related to adverse weather called ＂weather call option ＋ risk-reward ＋ join gold＂ is designed. The results show that weather options can transfer the adverse weather risk to the financial markets, which guarantees the relative stable revenues of both the company and the farmer. In addition, the proposed contract mechanism can help both the company and the farmer to achieve Pareto improvement of the benefits. The robustness of the agricultural supply chain under contract-farming pattern can be achieved. Finally, the numerical simulation demonstrates the validity of the contract mechanism.
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