中国新兴产业的产能过剩是阶段性、结构性与区域性过剩交织的结果,资源禀赋、价格扭曲、地方政府的冲动竞争和国外政府的贸易保护共同导致了该过剩。光伏行业作为中国新兴产业的典型代表,面临资源禀赋决定的结构性过剩、国际贸易摩擦引致的阶段性过剩、区域竞争加剧引发的区域性过剩和投资主导的产业政策带来潮涌型投资过剩的四重过剩叠加。为疏解该行业的产能过剩,需要重塑中央政府-地方政府-企业间关系、合理选择原始创新与集成创新的创新模式、以贸易多元化策略缓释来自欧美市场的贸易争端压力、以并购重组挤压落后产能等多层面的策略组合。
Overcapacity in China's emerging industries is the result of temporal, structural and regional overcapacity. Resource surplus, price distortions, impulsive competition between local governments, and trade protection of foreign governments together create this overcapacity. Photovoltaic industry, as a representative of China's emerging industries,is experiencing structural overcapacity caused by resource surplus, temporal overcapacity caused by international trade friction, regional overcapacity caused by fierce regional competition, and tidal overcapacity caused by industrial policy that is dominated by investment. In order to relieve the overcapacity of the industry, the relationship among central government, local governments, and enterprises should be reshaped. The new innovation model should choose between original innovation and integral innovation. The diversification of trade should be a strategy to be taken in order to relieve the pressure caused by the frictions in European and European markets. What is more, the merging and acquisitions of backward production capacity should also be one strategy taken to relieve overcapacity.