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面向应急决策的专家意见融合研究
  • ISSN号:1000-0135
  • 期刊名称:《情报学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:G203[文化科学—传播学]
  • 作者机构:[1]武汉大学信息资源研究中心,武汉430072, [2]威斯康星大学密尔沃基分校,密尔沃基53201
  • 相关基金:国家社会科学基金重大项目“智慧城市应急决策情报体系建设研究”(项目编号:13&ZD173)、中央高校基本科研业务费项目“跨学科专家科研团队发现研究”(项目编号:2014104010202)研究成果之一,并得到武汉大学博士研究生短期出国(境)研修资助项目资助.
中文摘要:

基于既有应急参考咨询团队构建模式研究,设计面向应急决策的专家意见融合流程。首先,依据专家评估意见定性化描述语言集合,借由两极比例法和归一化方法,量化专家评估意见;然后,采用熵权法计算属性指标的权重,使用专家综合排名mass值作为专家评估意见的权重;其次,获取各专家评估矩阵的模糊正理想解和模糊负理想饵,通过加权欧式距离计算各专家方案隶属于模糊正理想解的程度,获取各专家应急方案排名;再次,召集人将排名情况及分析结果反馈给各专家,据此,专家对各自评价意见做出调整,之后重复二三阶段任务,直至获取决策方案的最终排名。最后以“森林火灾监测站点选址”为示例,说明本文所提专家意见融合流程的可行性和合理性。

英文摘要:

Based on previous research on construction mode of emergency expert team for virtual reference, this paper has designed the process of opinion fusion oriented to emergency decision-making. Firstly, according to set of qualitative description language, expert assessment views have quantitatively been dealed with via bipolar scaling method and normalization method. Secondly, information entropy has been used to calculate the weight of emergency plan properties and expert ranking mass value has been integrated to the weight of expert assessment views. Thirdly, convenor has assessed the opinions experts submitted, which includes three steps: the first step is to obtain fuzzy positive ideal solution and fuzzy negative ideal solution; the second step to calculate the distance between emergency plan and two fuzzy ideal solutions through weighted Euclidean distance; the last step is to calculate membership degree of every emergency plan to fuzzy positive ideal solution, which is the standard of emergency plan ranking. Fourth, the feedback on ranking situation and analysis results have been given to every expert, experts adjust their evaluation views, and then second and third stage task have been repeated until eventual ranking of emergency plan has been received. Finally, instance analysis about selection of forest fire monitoring sites has demonstrated that the procedure is feasible and reliable.

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期刊信息
  • 《情报学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学技术协会
  • 主办单位:中国科学技术情报学会 中国科学技术信息研究所
  • 主编:戴国强
  • 地址:北京复兴路15号
  • 邮编:100038
  • 邮箱:qbxb@istic.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-68598273
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0135
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-2257/G3
  • 邮发代号:82-153
  • 获奖情况:
  • 1992年全国优秀科技期刊评比二等奖,1997年中国科协优秀科技期刊三等奖,被国外4种检索工具录用
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,美国剑桥科学文摘,英国科学文摘数据库,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:19778