产业发展规划是各地各级政府宏观调控经济的主要方式,由于缺乏对其范式的规律性梳理和总结,在很大程度上造成了我国各地区出台的产业发展规划存在诸多问题。在对产业发展规划的概念及其范式进行界定的基础上,结合现有研究文献,将产业发展规划的范式分为三个步骤:产业基本面分析、产业结构预测以及产业结构演进轨迹设计,并归纳出每一个步骤的基本内容、理论基础以及技术方法,构成了研究产业发展规划的理论框架。最后,将该范式运用到安徽省铜山镇的产业发展规划中,设计了该地区产业结构演进三个阶段模型。
Industrial development planning is the main way for local governments to control Ly. However, there existed no research on paradigm for such planning. Therefore many problems have arisen in the introduction of such plan- ning. In this paper, the concept of industrial development planning and its paradigm were defined. On this basis, the re- search paradigm for industrial development planning was devided into three steps: analysis for industrial fimdamentals, fore- cast for industrial structure, and design for evolution track of industrial structure. Furthermore, the revelant content, theoreti- cal basis and technical methods were contained in every step. At last, the low-carbon transition of industrial development in Tongshan town has also been planned according to paradigm for industrial development planning.