经济增长是宏观经济学研究的核心问题,尤其是对于中国这样的发展中国家,实现经济的平稳较快增长是提高人民生活水平、实现民族振兴的根本途径。改革开放以来,中国经济飞速增长,一跃成为世界第二大经济体。但是,使用滤波分析发现,近期中国的经济增长呈现一定程度的下行趋势,这需要引起足够的重视。通过联立方程模型对中国经济增长情况进行研究,结果表明,贷款利率、人民币汇率、税收等宏观调控工具通过消费、投资、净出口三大动力对中国经济增长作用巨大。当前,要综合运用财政政策和货币政策,为中国经济长期平稳较快增长提供战略支撑。
Economic growth is the core issue of macroeconomics research, especially for developing countries such as China. To achieve stable and rapid economic growth is the fundamental way to improve people' s living standards and achieve national rejuvenation. Since the reform and opening up, China has expierenced rapid econom- ic growth. With HP filter analysis and simultaneous equations system, this study finds that, China's economic growth is slowing down, and through consumption, investment, net exports, the maerocontrol tools such as the loan interest rate, the exchange rate and taxation,have enormous effects on China's economic growth. Now China should combine finance policy and currency policy together to maintain the economic growth.