中文摘要：

在中国经济体制和社会结构＂双转型＂过程中,1989年首次出现的＂民工潮＂问题在短短十几年里突然转变为＂民工荒＂现象,有其多方面原因。本文以农民工＂二次流动＂为视角,发展出引发和影响＂民工荒＂现象的系列变量,应用SPSS11.5对浙、闽、津三省（区）五城市1550位农民工的问卷调查数据进行统计分析检验,发现导致农民工＂换企业流动＂和＂换地区流动＂的8个因素将引发＂民工荒＂,农民工个体的利益诉求、心理品格和企业管理效能以及政府政策行为等因素也对＂民工荒＂现象产生影响,且企业＂用工荒＂是区域＂民工荒＂前兆;在此基础上归纳出＂民工荒＂形成的一般机理。

英文摘要：

During the ＂double transition＂ of economic system and social structure in China, the problem that ＂thousands of farmers pour into cities every day＂ appeared in 1989 changed into ＂farmer-turned workers shortage＂ phenomenon in 10 years, the reasons are multifarious. The paper which is basde upon the ＂second migration＂of farmer-turned workers, developed a series of variables which lead and influence the ＂farmer-turned workers shortage＂ phenomenon.We analyze questionaire statistics by SPSS on 1550 farmer-turned workers working in 5 cities in Zhejiang, Fujian and Tianjin, find that the 8 factors leading farmer-turned workers leaving the factory and region are able to cause ＂farmer-turned workers shortage＂. In addition there are other influence factors, such as demand for interests and psychological character of farmer-turned workers, management efficiency of enterprise and policy behavior of government etc.. And the enterprises＇ ＂employees shortage＂ are premonition of the region＇s ＂farmer-turned workers shortage＂. The general mechanism of farmer-turned workers shortage is concluded.