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中文摘要：
泥石流灾害往往造成巨大经济损失，但由于其影响因素众多，如何合理进行危险性评判一直是研究的焦点问题。本文以研究项目为依托，选择泥石流流域沟谷的纵剖面形态指数作为流域的地貌特征指标，用超熵理论量化泥石流流域地貌系统的稳定性与演化趋势，并借助于模糊综合评判手段，对泥石流危险性进行评价。评判结果表明：该方法的评价结果与实际较为接近，为泥石流流域系统的演化趋势预测以及危险性等级划分提供了良好的分析方法。
英文摘要：
Debris flow hazards always cause enormous economic losses because of the variety of the influence factors. Evaluation of the hazard of the debris flow reasonable is a focus. The present paper express the terrain character index in drainage - system with the shape of the longitudinal profile of the debris flows, and studied the stability and evolution of the debris flows by the ＂Superentropy＂ theory with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the debris flow hazard. It is proved that the assessing results is close to the real, and bring a good method for the forecast of the evolution and the hazard of the debris flow valley.
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