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中文摘要：
洪水资源化是解决当前及以后水资源短缺危机的一条重要途径。汛限水位调整是洪水资源化中常用的措施，它关系着水库的防洪效益和防洪风险。因此，洪水资源化中的汛限水位调整是一种风险决策。本文以三峡水库洪水资源化问题为背景，应用泛系观控理论研究了三峡水库洪水资源化多目标决策汛限水位组合调控方案的风险及其比较收益，并从信息熵的角度以约束信息量对调控手段的风险进行了定性及定量分析，结果表明该分析技术运作效果较好，揭示了汛限水位调整风险的内在规定性，有助于合理地决策，从而为洪水资源化中风险分析提供了新的研究手段，值得进一步研究和应用。
英文摘要：
Floodwater utilization is an important measure thereafer, adjustment of limiting level during flood season is to cope with crisis of water scarcity nowadays and an ordinary method of floodwater utilization, it reflects the flood control benefit and risk of reservoir, adjustment of limiting level during flood season is a risk decision making of floodwater utilization. Based on the flood water utilization of Three Gorges Reservoir, by comparison of all integrated limiting level alternatives, the risk and its gain in multi-objective decision making of floodwater utilization are studied by the pansystems observation-control methodology, the risk of controlling measure is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively from the point of information entropy with binding information. Results show that this technology operates well and illustrate the internal rule in the risk of adjustment of limiting level. So this technology offers a new research tool for risk analysis on floodwater utilization, it is also helpful to make decisions more reasonably and worthy to deep study
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