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中文摘要：
高心墙堆石坝填筑工期关系到大坝的施工进度与工程投资，传统的蒙特卡洛仿真基于对网络计划活动持续时间构造概率模型并对其抽样，不能反映工期与风险因素的关系，影响了工期仿真与风险评价的客观性与可靠性。本文将改进的集对分析方法应用到高心墙堆石坝填筑施工的工期仿真与风险评价中，充分考虑到活动持续时间的确定性与不确定性以及工期与风险因素的关系，建立了多元联系数表达的施工进度网络计划模型，提出了多元联系数网络计划的蒙特卡洛仿真流程。以澜沧江某水电站心墙堆石坝为例，利用仿真工期分布、完工概率、工序关键度等指标，为大坝填筑工期风险提供了评价指标。与传统的蒙特卡洛仿真方法相比，基于改进集对分析方法的蒙特卡洛仿真，得到的仿真成果更加可靠、更加符合工程实际，为高心墙堆石坝填筑工期的风险评价和风险管理提供了科学依据。
英文摘要：
Construction period of high core rock-fill dam filling relates to the construction progress and the project investment of a dam. While, traditional Monte Carlo simulation is based on constructing probabilistic model and sampling for the duration of network planning activity. This method cannot reflect the relation between duration and risk factors, which affects the objectivity and reliability of the simulation of the duration and the risk assessment. This paper applies improved set pair analysis method to filling construction schedule simulation and risk assessment of high core rock-fill dam, takes a full consideration of certainty and uncertainty of activity duration and relation between duration and risk factors, establishes network planning model of construction schedule Multiple connection number expressed by multiple connection number, and proposes Monte Carlo simulation process based on multiple connection number network planning. Taking a core rock-fill dam on Lancang River as an example, indicators like the distribution of duration, the probability of completion, the criticality of process, etc. are simulated, which provides evaluation standards for risks of rock-fill dam construction period. Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation, this method can obtain simulation results that are more reliable and more consistent with engineering practice, which provides a scientific basis for risk assessment and risk management of high core rock-fill dam embankment construction period.
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