中文摘要：

利用1980―2007年湖南省重大洪涝灾害统计数据,采用灰色系统建模方法,建立了湖南省洪涝灾害重大损失年份的灰色灾变GM（1,1）模型,预测未来10年湖南省重大洪涝灾害发生的趋势。结果显示,湖南省洪涝灾害具有周期性波动上升特征,未来10年中,可能发生轻灾的年份为2010和2017年,可能发生重大洪灾的年份为2012、2015和2019年,可能发生特大洪涝灾害的年份为2013和2016年。认为主要原因一方面是湖南特有的以流水为主的地质地貌特征导致地域蓄水能力有限,另一方面是湖南水利工程破坏严重、排洪减涝能力不高以及人们自觉的防灾减灾意识不强。

英文摘要：

With the statistical flood data from 1980 to 2007 in Hunan Province, by using grey system theory, a grey forecasting model GM（1,1） is built to analyze the fluctuation of the flood disaster and predict its trend. The results show that the flood disasters in Hunan have had an increase feature with cyclical fluctuation. In the next decade, light flood disasters might occur in 2010 and 2017, major disasters in 2012,2015 and 2019,and extraordinary ones in 2013 and 2016. In the province, the water-storage capacity is low because of the special geological conditions, many water conservancy facilities have been aged or damaged, and the disaster reduction consciousness of the people is poor. Those would be the factors affecting the occurrence of the disasters.