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中文摘要：
“营改增”是我国财税体制改革的重要内容,它对拉动第三产业增长的效应如何,基于经济计量模型的实证分析尚不多见。基于HCW模型和方法,实证分析了上海市“营改增”对促进其第三产业增长的效应。结果表明,“营改增”对上海市第三产业的增长具有显著的促进作用,营改增拉动了上海市2012年第三产业增长1.1个百分点,2013年1.4个百分点。剔除2008年国际金融危机冲击的影响,“营改增”对上海市第三产业的促进效应依然显著。最后,对HCW模型和方法在该项研究中的有效性进行了检验,HCW模型表现出了较好的适应性。
英文摘要：
The reform of business tax to value-added tax is an important part of China＇s fiscal and taxation system reform, but few econometrical literatures focus on the effect of it on growth of the tertiary industry.This paper gives an empirical study on the effect of Shanghai＇ s reform of business tax to value-added tax on the growth of its tertiary industry based on the HCW model.The result shows that the tax reform stimulates greatly the growth of Shanghai＇ s tertiary industry by 1.1 percentage points in 2012 and 1.4 percentage points in 2013.After eliminating the effect of global financial crisis in 2008 ,the effect is still evident.An examination is also presented and justifies the HCW model suitable to this problem.
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