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中文摘要：
将过度自信系数引入传统供应链系统VMI模型之中,探讨随机需求下供应商的过度自信程度对零售商和供应链系统产生影响的机理;指出当市场需求出现有利信号（不利信号）时,供应商过度自信有利于（不利于）零售商利润的越高;并分别在成本信息对称和不对称两种情形下设计了基于数量折扣的VMI协调契约模型;最后,结合算例对过度自信系数进行敏感性分析,并验证了结论的有效性。
英文摘要：
By introducing overconfidence coefficient into the traditional Vender Managed Inventory（VMI） model,we discuss the mechanism of how the degree of suppliers＇ overconfidence impacts the retail and the supply chain system under stochastic demand.It is pointed out that supplier＇s overconfidence is benefit/not benefit to retailer＇s profit under a favorable/unfavorable signal of market demand.Then,VMI coordination models are designed based on quantity discounts for the cases of symmetry and asymmetry cost information respectively.Finally,sensitivity analysis of confidence coefficient is made by a computing example.The effectiveness of conclusions has also been verified.
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