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中文摘要：
选取1980--2012年33年间我国9个小麦主产省份（安徽、河北、河南、湖北、江苏、山东、山西、陕西、四川）的气候数据和冬小麦农业生产投入、产出数据，利用扩展的C—D生产函数分析了气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明，总体上来看气候变化对冬小麦的产量有显著影响，温度与降水量的上升导致了冬小麦产量的增加，而日照时数的减少导致了冬小麦产量的降低。在不同地区，气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响程度甚至影响方向都不同。温度变化对华东地区冬小麦产量为正向影响，中南地区、西南地区和西北地区为反向影响，影响程度最深的是西北地区，其次是华东地区、西北地区、中南地区。温度对华北地区冬小麦产量可能有正的影响。
英文摘要：
This paper selected the climate data and the input and output data of winter wheat production from 1980 to 2012 in nine major wheat producing provinces （Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Siehuan ） , then analyzed the impacts of climate change on winter wheat yield by using extended C-D production function. The results shows that, overall, climate change had significant influences on the yield of winter wheat. Rising temperature and precipitation led to the increase of winter wheat yield, and the decline of sunshine time led to a drop of winter wheat yield. In different regions, the influences were different, and even the directions. The influences of temperature change on winter wheat yield in the east of China was positive, but in the central south, the southwest and northwest regions, had the reverse effects. The deepest influence is in the southwest region, followed by the east of China area, the northwest and central south area. The influences of temperature on winter wheat yield in north China may be positive.
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