中国四大玉米主产区普遍受到了旱灾和涝灾的影响,其中旱灾影响的面积更广。基于农业部农村固定观察点和中国气象科学数据共享服务网的统计数据,采用固定效应模型分析农户的灾害适应性行为对玉米主产区生产的影响发现:对于单产而言,旱灾的被动应对行为和提前预防行为对各地区均有显著正向影响;涝灾的提前预防行为对各地区均有显著正向影响,而被动应对行为却只对黄淮海和西南两个地区有显著正向影响。对生产效率而言,旱灾的被动应对行为对北方和西南两个地区有显著负向影响,提前预防行为以显著正向影响为主;涝灾的被动适应行为对黄淮海和西南两个地区分别有正、负向显著影响,而提前预防行为以显著正向影响为主。提前预防行为总体上要优于被动应对行为,"未雨绸缪"有其重要价值。
China's four major producing area of maize broadly influenced by drought and flood, and the drought affects broader. Based on Ministry of Agriculture and the rural fixed observation point and the China Meteorological data sharing service network statistics, using fixed effect model to analyze the effect of the disaster adaptive behavior of farmers to the main maize production areas, the author finds out that: when concerning with yield, farmers' passive drought coping behavior and prevention behavior have a significant positive effect on various regions; farmers' prevention behavior against the floods has a significant positive effect on various regions, while farmers' passive coping behavior have significant positive effect only at two areas, the Huang-Huai-Hai area and the southwest of China. As for production efficiency, farmers' passive drought coping behavior has significantly negative effect at North China and South China, prevention behavior has a significant positive impact; the farmers' passive floods adaptation behavior has respectively positive and negative significant effect at two regions of Huang-Huai-Hai and southwest of China, and farmers' prevention behavior has a significant positive impact. Overall, prevention is superior to the passive coping behavior.