中文摘要：

采用气候倾向率和M-K突变检验,分析1951~2012年江西省气候和温度的变化趋势和突变特征;构建＂气候-经济＂新模型,研究气候因子对水稻产量的影响,最后借助BP神经网络模型预测未来10a气候因子对水稻产量的贡献。结果表明：过去60多年来气温平均每10a升高0.172℃,而降水的线性倾向不显著;气温突变开始的时间约为1997年,降水的突变趋势不明显;不同阶段气候因素的贡献率及作用方向存在差异,1978~1997年气候因子贡献率为5.97%,其中温度和降水贡献率分别为1.51%、4.46%。1998~2013年气候因子贡献率为8.98%,温度和降水贡献率分别为4.63%、4.35%。物质要素在不同阶段的贡献率均为70%以上,其中播种面积和化肥的影响程度较大;未来10a气温对江西水稻产量的贡献为1.48,降水量对水稻产量的贡献为2.22。

英文摘要：

Climate trend rate and M-K mutation test methods are applied to analyze trends and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jiangxi during 1951~2012. ＂Climate-economy＂ model is established to study the effect of climatic factors on rice yield. Finally, BP neural network model is used to predict the contribution of climatic factors to rice yield in the next 10 years. The results showed that temperature increased at a rate of 0.172℃/10 a over the past 60 yearsbut linear trend of precipitation was not significant. Mutation of temperature occurred in 1997. Mutation of precipitation was not obvious. There were differences between contribution and direction of climatic factors action at different stages. The contribution of climatic factors was 5.97% during 1978~1997, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 1.51% and 4.46%. The contribution of climatic factors was 8.98% during 1998~2013, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 4.63% and 4.35%. The contribution of material elements was above 70% in different stages, including a large degree of plantings and fertilizer. The contribution of temperature to rice yield in Jiangxi province was 1.48 and the contribution of precipitation was 2.22 over the next 10 years.