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中文摘要：
在电力市场的新形势下实施“经济要发展电力需先行”的战略。首先要科学认识电力产业经济周期性波动的来源和特征。选择电力投资占GDP的比重和装机容量作为反映电力产业经济规模的综合指标。利用历史数据估计一个包含宏观经济变量在内的VAR模型的参数，在此基础上进行格兰杰因果关系检验，运用参数法估计变量的谱密度矩阵。分析表明：中国宏观经济波动向电力产业经济传导的主周期是6、7a。传导方向是从宏观经济开始，经过投资占比传导至装机容量，传导时滞为18；电力产业波动的次周期为2、3a，传导方向是从投资占比到装机容量，传导时滞为一个次周期。引起中国电力经济波动的主要原因是宏观经济波动，电力投资被动地跟在这一波动的后面。
英文摘要：
When executing the strategies that the development of electricity industry has a prior to others under the situations of the innovation of electricity market mechanism, it has to be done to make research on the sources and the characteristic of the China electricity industry fluctuations. After choosing the ratios of investment in electricity industry to GDP and the generation capabilities as index measuring the electricity industry scales, the data of China electricity industry and gross economy were applied to estimate the parameters of VAR model, and the Granger causality tests were carried out and the spectrum density matrixes were estimated. These results show that the main period in which the gross economic fluctuation is spreads to electricity industry economy is 6-7 years, the path of spreading is gross economic to the ratio of electricity investment to GDP to generation capabilities, and the length of lag is one year; that the hypo-period is 2-3 years, the path is electricity investment to generation capabilities, and the length of lag is nearly one cycle. The main sources of China electricity industry fluctuations are the macroeconomic movements, the plans of electricity investment are passively made behind the movements.
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