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中文摘要：
航空备件直接影响航空公司安全运营和成本管理，关系到航空公司信誉和效益。鉴于航空装备的6种故障率特性，依据可靠性理论建立相应的故障分布模型，同时将维修度引入到航空备件需求和预测的计算中来。本方法通过分析历史故障数据确定设备故障特性，并应用广义更新过程对维修度进行估计，之后应用蒙特卡罗计算满足该维修度条件下的期望故障数。最后对最小维修、一般维修以及完全维修进行实例比较分析。分析结果表明：本方法更为合理，反映实际维修特点，具有较大的应用价值。
英文摘要：
Based on the six kinds of failure performances of the aviation equipments, we establish their corresponding failure distribution model by reliability theory, and introduce the repair degree to solve the demand and forecast of the aero-spares. By the history failure data, we determine the equipment failure characteristic and estimate the parameter value of the repair degree by applying the Generalized Renewal Process. Then, this method is applied to simulating the average failure number under several maintenance policies by applying Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a case is analyzed by comparing the conclusions drawn from minimal repair, general repair and perfect repair. The result shows that this method is more reasonable than the existing methods.
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