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中文摘要：
企业集团在我国经济发展占有重要地位，是商业银行最主要的信贷客户。合理地选择企业集团财务危机的预测指标，并在此基础上构建企业集团的财务危机预测模型，具有十分重要的理论研究价值和现实意义。本文针对企业集团的特点，通过因子分析提取7个公共因子作为预测变量，并结合Logistic方法建立了企业集团财务危机的预测模型。进一步，从沪深A股选取37家被“ST”的企业集团和37家财务正常的企业集团为样本，对预测模型进行检验。研究结果表明该预测模型能在企业集团财务危机发生前做出较为准确的预测。
英文摘要：
Enterprise group plays an important role in China＇s economic development, it is the most important credit customers of commercial banks. Forecasting the financial crisis will be benefit for the enterprise group and is helpful for reducing banks＇ credit risk. This paper takes the listed companies of enterprise groups in China as research object. Carrying on the factorial analysis for the indicators, establish the financial crises forecasting model --- Logistic regression model and test the model. The 37 ＂ST＂ listed enterprise groups and 37 companies that are non-financial difficult enterprise groups from the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share stock market were selected as the sample. At last, the model testing result indicates that its forecasting impact is quit well.
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