本文针对风险投资项目的风险评估,建立了基于云重心评判法的评估模型。本文的分析方法是在专家对评估指标进行定性评价的基础上,组成决策矩阵,并运用主成分分析法合理分配各指标的权重,然后利用云理论的相关知识,求出各指标的云模型表示及风险投资项目风险的多维加权综合云重心和理想状态下项目风险的加权综合云重心,最后用加权偏离度(9)来衡量项目风险与理想风险状态的偏离度,以表示项目的风险大小。算例验证了该方法的可行性。
In this article, in order to evaluate the risk of venture projects, the model of membership cloud gravity center (MCGC)is constructedo The method of this article is based on qualitative evaluation of experts, then compositing the decision-making matrix, and distributing the index weight using Principal Component Analysis, now constructing cloud model of indexes, calculating multidimensional weighted synthetic cloud gravity center of the venture project and it' s perfect state, finally using weighted θ to weigh the deflection degree between the venture project and perfect state to show the risk of the venture project. The simulation shows the feasibility of the model