中文摘要：

文章选取山东省17地市2002-2014年面板数据,采用DEA-Malmquist指数法对农业全要素生产率进行测算并以其作为表示农业现代化的指标,运用面板向量自回归模型估计了工业化、城镇化和农业现代化（简称＂三化＂）的动态关系。研究表明：城镇化和工业化之间存在显著的相互促进作用,而农业现代化与两者（城镇化和工业化）之间不存在显著的关系;城镇化与工业化互为格兰杰因果关系,农业现代化与两者均不存在格兰杰因果关系;工业化和城镇化两者与农业现代化互动关系较弱导致农业现代化的发展滞后。在此基础上提出了推进山东省＂三化＂同步发展的政策建议。

英文摘要：

Based on the panel data of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong province from 2002 to 2014, this paper estimates agriculturaltotal factor productivity by applying the DEA-Malmquist index method and takes it as the indicator of agricultural modernization. The pa-per also analyzes the dynamic relationship of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization by employing the panel vectorauto regression model. The results show that： There is a significant mutual promoting effect between urbanization and industrialization, butthere is no significant mutual relationship between agricultural modernization and the two（urbanization and industrialization）; Industrial-ization and urbanization present mutual Granger causality, whereas there is no Granger relationship between agricultural modernizationand the two. The weaker interactive relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization results in the devel-opment of agricultural modernization lagging behind. Accordingly, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on how to push forward thecoordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural in Shandong province.