“中国制造2025”促使世界目光聚焦中国制造业,提高制造业国际竞争力至关重要。通过选取影响制造业国际竞争力因素为研究视角,在分别测度环境规制、人民币实际汇率历史变动趋势及特点的基础上,采用显性对比优度指数辨识制造业国际竞争力的时序发展态势,进而构建误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应及预测方差分解检验制造业环境规制、实际汇率及其国际竞争力的长期动态均衡关系,其短期动态性。研究结果表明:环境规制对提升制造业国际竞争力的驱动力不足,尤其是针对制造业差异化的环境规制措施亟需调整;人民币汇率变动对制造业国际竞争力的福利效应相对显著,而汇率升值背景下提高劳动生产效率成为制造业国际竞争力提升的重要支撑点,其动态响应呈短期内“适应调整”与远期“相对稳定”的基本状态,同时,外商直接投资短期内可对制造业国际竞争力造成负向冲击,而长期则呈正向效应,但其投资增速会被进一步控制。
The development of China's manufacturing industry has been attracted the attention of the world since ‘Made in China 2025' was put forward, so it is meaningful to improve the manufacturing industry's intemational competitiveness. The influence factor of international competitiveness of manufacturing was chosen as the research angle of view, and the trends and characteristics of environmental regulation and RMB exchange rate were analyzed, and then the development of manufacturing industry's international competitiveness was analyzed by the dominant comparative index. Finally, the co-integration relationships between environmental regulation changes, RMB exchange rate fluctuation and international competitiveness were tested based on the error correction model, generalized impulse response and variance decomposition. Results show that the driving force of environmental regulation was not enough for manufacturing industry's international competitiveness, and differentiation characteristics of manufacturing industry need to be attention when the environmental regulation policies were formulated. The RMB exchange rate could bring more benefits to manufacturing. But the labor production efficiency be improved was one of the important points to reach the goal of manufacturing industries international competitiveness would be promoted, and its response status were ‘the adjustment' in the short-term and 'relatively stable' in long-term. At the same time, foreign direct investment would be a negative impact on manufacturing industry's international competitiveness in the short-term, and then it would be positively to effect on the whole. However, the investment growth could be further control.