中文摘要：

以山东省为例,通过构建非限制性VAR模型,采用Johansen协整检验、建立OLS估计协整方程、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,对其1992—2012年物流业发展水平与碳排放间的动态关联性进行研究。结果表明,山东省物流业发展水平与碳排放量存有长期的协整关系;物流业水平的提升导致对能源消耗程度提升,造成碳排放量的增加,且物流产业增加值每提升1%可引起碳排放量增加0.422%。

英文摘要：

This paper studies the dynamic relation between logistics industry development level and carbon emissions in Shandong province from 1992 to 2012 by constructing unrestricted VAR model,using Johansen cointegration test,OLS estimation equation,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results show that logistics industry development level and carbon emissions have long- term cointegration relationship; the promotion of the logistics industry has led to an increased level of energy consumption and carbon emissions and when the value of logistics increases 1%,it will cause an increase of 0. 422% in carbon emissions.